Original sin, sovereign default, and the limits of the fiscal theory of the price level
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) argues that inflation adjusts to ensure that the real value of government liabilities equals the expected present value of future primary surpluses. This mechanism is plausible in economies whose public debt is predominantly denominated in domestic nominal currency. Its applicability to emerging markets is less obvious. This paper argues that the standard FTPL has limited explanatory power in economies affected by “original sin”—the inability to borrow long term in their own currency.